Track record
What happened after past buying clusters, as measured, including where the score did not help. Past results, not a forecast.
What was measured
8,672 clusters that formed between 2016-01-04 and 2026-10-07. For each one: the stock's return minus its benchmark's (IWM for small companies, SPY otherwise), from the first market open after the SEC accepted the filing that made it a cluster, to 5, 21, 63 and 126 trading days later. Each cluster is scored with what was known at that moment. A stock that stopped trading gets its delisting return. Computed 2026-10-15.
Does a higher score go with a higher return?
The table gives the rank correlation between the score shown on this site and the later return: +1 means higher scores always went with higher returns, 0 means no relation, a negative number means the opposite. The number after each figure is the number of clusters it rests on.
| After | All clusters · number | Open-market buying only · number | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | +0.025 · 8,655 | +0.021 · 6,919 | higher scores have gone with higher returns |
| 21 trading days | -0.013 · 8,611 | -0.003 · 6,884 | no relation |
| 63 trading days | -0.044 · 8,500 | -0.037 · 6,802 | higher scores have gone with lower returns |
| 126 trading days | -0.084 · 8,320 | -0.081 · 6,655 | higher scores have gone with lower returns |
By score band
Median return against the benchmark · share of clusters above the benchmark · number of clusters.
| Score | 5 days | 21 days | 63 days | 126 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 and above | +0.1% · 57% above · 7 | -0.3% · 43% above · 7 | -18.9% · 43% above · 7 | -16.7% · 14% above · 7 |
| 60 to 79 | +0.3% · 53% above · 1,658 | -0.8% · 48% above · 1,644 | -2.9% · 45% above · 1,615 | -8.8% · 40% above · 1,573 |
| Below 60 | +0.1% · 51% above · 6,990 | -0.4% · 48% above · 6,960 | -1.4% · 47% above · 6,878 | -3.7% · 43% above · 6,740 |
By type of buying
Median return against the benchmark · share of clusters above the benchmark · number of clusters.
| Type | 5 days | 21 days | 63 days | 126 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-market buying | +0.2% · 52% above · 6,919 | -0.3% · 49% above · 6,884 | -1.3% · 47% above · 6,802 | -4.0% · 43% above · 6,655 |
| IPO or offering | -0.4% · 48% above · 1,220 | -1.8% · 43% above · 1,215 | -5.0% · 41% above · 1,194 | -10.0% · 36% above · 1,168 |
| Routine or plan buying | -0.1% · 48% above · 516 | 0.0% · 50% above · 512 | -0.2% · 50% above · 504 | -0.7% · 49% above · 497 |
How to read this
The score describes the buying: how many insiders, how senior, how much. These tables say what followed in the past, on average, across thousands of very different companies. They say nothing about one stock, and nothing about the future. Use the score to decide what to read first, not what to buy. The rules behind it are on the methodology page.